A theater ad for Toy Story 5/Disclosure Day (2026)
Over the last couple of weeks, there have been some unusual occurrences, which may signal the beginning of new trends. First, two blockbuster films have largely underperformed. First, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu opened on Memorial Day weekend, and it is on track to become the lowest-grossing live-action film in the Star Wars franchise. Currently, its global total revenue stands at 318.9M worldwide, though it needs 500–600M to break even. This means the film may very well lose money. The other film to similarly flop is Masters of the Universe, based on the He-Man toys that were popular in the 80s. This recent release has grossed only 90M worldwide, though it needs 400–425M to break even. Looking at the difference in those figures, this one is a disaster.
However, curiously enough, at the same time, two low-budget films have generated outstanding business. First is Obsession, which was shot for $750,000. This film follows a hopeless romantic who breaks a “One Wish Willow” to win his crush’s heart, but discovers there is a dark price to pay for getting the girl he wants. So far, the film has grossed over $305M. Likewise, Backrooms, a film based on a YouTube web series, was shot by the series’ creator for $10M and has yet earned $279.8M worldwide. Both Obsession and Backrooms stayed strong at numbers 3 and 4 in this weekend’s box office.
These unexpected successes suggest that audiences today are interested in different types of films from the usual blockbusters. We can find this need for change reflected in the two films that presently sit at numbers 1 and 2: Toy Story 5 and Disclosure Day. The first of those, Toy Story 5,opened to a successful $160M domestic weekend, beating Super Mario Galaxy’s record. Meanwhile, Disclosure Day—Steven Spielberg’s first original blockbuster in eight years—has only reached $160M internationally after two weekends. Looking at that figure, it seems as though Spielberg’s film is not likely to outgross Obsession or Backrooms. What has happened?
The answer can be found by watching Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5. One feels like a relic in 2026, coming from a director past his prime. Meanwhile, the other is at least aware that times have changed since its franchise began, and it is adapting to the new realities.
Let us consider Disclosure Day. This new release is a return to a regular theme for Spielberg: aliens. The director first covered this theme in a serious/suspenseful way with Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977), and went on to deliver a childhood dream with ET (1982) and a pure popcorn film with War of the Worlds (2005). There is even a little alien action in Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull (2008). What is also interesting about Disclosure Day is that this is only the second summer blockbuster Spielberg has attempted since Crystal Skull (The other being Ready Player One (2018), already forgotten). Most of his releases between Crystal Skull and Disclosure Day have been serious films, such as Lincoln (2012) and The Post (2016), or semi-autobiographical, such as The Fabelmans (2022). These films have received Oscar nominations, but generated very little box office. Perhaps the return to an alien theme and a summer release was an attempt to break that run.
Let’s take a moment for the film’s plot. In Disclosure Day, Spielberg tries for the serious/suspenseful approach we saw in Close Encounters. The world is on the verge of World War III, and from the beginning, a good deal of the characters are aware that aliens exist. A cybersecurity expert, Daniel Kellner (Josh O’Connor), has stolen evidence of this from Wardex Corporation, an arm of the US government. Meanwhile, meteorologist Margaret Fairchild (Emily Blunt) notices a cardinal bird fly into her apartment. Margaret thinks its just a bird, but right after the bird flies away, she starts to notice changes in herself, Later that day, she discovers she has telepathic powers, and during a weather broadcast, breaks into an unknown language. Wardex recognizes it as extraterrestrial. They tried to capture her and wants to see what she knows about the aliens, but Margaret escapes. She eventually comes into contact with Daniel, who can understand the language Margaret spoke in her broadcast. Yet Hugo Wakefield (Coleman Domingo), a Wardex employee who has gone rogue, who knows about the two and the aliens from his interaction with them. Hugo is determined to get the pair back into Margaret’s TV studio to reveal that aliens are here and have a message for us on Earth.
There are three problems with Spielberg’s idea here. First, the idea that the government would keep UFO secrets from us is hardly novel. Yet Spielberg seems to believe this is a serious theme and releases this new film as though he has something deep to really say here, which he doesn’t. There’s a lot of debate among the characters about whether to let the public know or not, but all their pros and cons have been discussed in similar films previously, such as Contact (1997). Second, the idea that the aliens would want broadcast news to convey their message to the world may have worked in the 90s or 00s, but in 2026, it is antiquated. Just look at the Iran war. World leaders are now communicating through social media—not just from Trump, but from leaders from Iran, Israel and Pakistan—about their latest negotiations. In 2026, Boomers (including Spielberg, it seems) are the only generation still watching broadcast news, and its future seems uncertain when they are gone. If aliens really wanted to contact Earth today, it seems they would use social media. Third, that these aliens could get a planet to stop conducting World War III and listen to what they say is ludicrous. I hardly think these aliens would get Trump’s or Khamenei’s attention today. And even if they did, I do not see either leader changing their ways after hearing the aliens out.
Another problem is the characters. We know Margaret and Daniel have been picked by the aliens to deliver their message, but even after watching the whole thing, I am not sure why. Also, the agenda of the main villain, Noah Scanlon (Colin Firth), in the beginning appears to be to stop the information about the aliens being leaked, but his final actions at the end of the film give us the impression it has not been his true agenda.
Also, there is a device the aliens have that various human characters use. I don’t know what this device is, but it can allow them to control other characters’ thoughts, make them invisible or restore power when it has been shut down. This device never feels like an authentic thing, but something to keep the plot moving forward.
A much better film with similar themes was made 10 years ago: Arrival (2016). This was directed by Denis Villeneuve, of the Dune films. In Arrival, the aliens communicate through a linguist, Louise (Amy Adams), and a physicist (Jeremy Renner). The army hires them, and just from their professions, we know why. However, other countries become hostile not curious like Disclosure Day, and see this contact with the aliens as a threat. As Louise learns the aliens’ language, they empower her to look into the future. That then gives her a chance to stop China from attacking the alien craft, as the Chinese general tells Louise in the future what got him to stop from attacking. She had spoken his wife’s dying words to him. Arrival works because we understand why these characters were chosen by the army and why the aliens would be receptive to them. Also, it realistically looks at how other countries would react and uses a much more believable method that would get a country to stop attacking them.
Audiences who grew up on Spielberg (such as my Generation X) went to see Disclosure Day on its opening weekend, and given the various flaws listed above, many left saying it was terrible. So, the film isn’t resonating with its target audience, and younger generations have moved on to Backrooms and Obsession. Where can Spielberg go from here? Well, he may have another Lincoln in him, but his blockbuster days are long gone. I would say the last decent one he made was War of the Worlds, and that was 2005.
Yet we can see the opposite trend—one of a legacy that endures—if we consider the lasting success of Toy Story. The original film was released in 1995, and 31 years later, people who watched the films as children are now parents taking their kids to see this latest release in 2026. They are still tuning in. If we consider what keeps them coming back, I would say that the first thing that Toy Story 5 gets right is that it recognizes the world’s addiction to tech—not just adults but kids as well. Unlike Disclosure Day, it clearly knows the time we live in. Plus, there is a female protagonist in this film, Jessie (Joan Cusack), while Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen) are now supporting. In the film, the toys’ owner, Bonnie (Scarlett Spears), can’t find other friends to play with as she looks at other neighborhood kids and sees they are all addicted to their tablets. Soon, Bonnie gets a tablet of her own, Lilypad (Greta Lee), and becomes addicted to it, too, which leaves Jessie and the other old toys neglected. Jessie, herself, was loved as a toy by her original owner and then neglected, which seems to be repeating.
At first glance, Toy Story 5 would appear to be an anti-tech film with Lilypad as the villain, but that really isn’t the case as the film goes on. For instance, Jessie arrives at her original owner’s home by accident and discovers that the new kid, Blaze (Mykal-Michelle Harris), started off with old tech devices and disposed of them—the same as with other toys—in favor of newer ones and tech that aged up, which continues as Blaze grows older. One of the discarded pieces of tech that she meets is SmartyPants (Conan O’Brien), who was used for toilet training. While many of us are addicted to tech, and while we can encounter a lot of crazy people online, this does show that tech can be helpful. It is also tech that lets Bonnie know where she can find Jessie at Blaze’s house. Another message of the film is that while you can encounter some mean people online, you can also meet some kind people who will become good friends. Bonnie and Blaze meet up and become good friends.
But this film isn’t just about tech: it’s about Jessie finding her arc. She was abandoned by her previous owner, and now she has been abandoned again by Bonnie. But we see Jessie come to learn in this film, like parents when their children grow up, that they aren’t abandoning you—they are moving into a new stage of life where they can thrive on their own. What’s important is that you were there at the previous stage when they needed you the most. Given that message, it seems appropriate that the film opened on Father’s Day weekend.
I went to see this film at the cinema, and when it reached its end, the audience applauded. Some kids danced in front of the screen as the credits rolled, and the new Taylor Swift song played.
Toy Story 5’s success, I believe, can be attributed to a dual approach of keeping some core elements from the original and also adapting to the realities of the changing world we live in. It is no accident that one of 2026’s successful films is based on a YouTube series—it is riding on the success of a modern platform. Disclosure Day, meanwhile, is a flop borne from a director who hasn’t kept up with the times and seems to have lost his magic from the past. If the last couple of weeks mark the start of a new trend, then it seems audiences aren’t interested in the same blockbusters that have succeeded before. Instead, they are open to new adventures. We will see if this continues in the second half of 2026.
